Thanks Katie Womersley for sharing perspective. It’s an interesting dilemma with some valid points such as Agile not being suitable in some situations (eg. Agile “reduces the risk that you’ll end up in a ‘not worth it' situation after a lot of sunk costs”).
Although, there are situations where both being wrong and late are undesirable and not acceptable for the business. Being wrong or late both cost money and time in some form and will need to be paid by someone. What to do in this case?
I believe it’s about being able to do the “hard stuff more often” like the “cost-benefit analysis…of the unknown unknowns” because ironically we often underestimate how much we know (even though research shows we are overconfident by default). Many of us have years of experience and knowledge that enables us to define some measures and quantification of situations to make a better decision. Although not an easy task, it can be learnt and possible with the right guidance☺ Software development is an exercise of uncertainty and to build successful products we need to be strategic and skilled at how we navigate this uncertainty.